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Markets

What is a 90:10 market?

A market where one outcome has at least 90% probability. FatTail exclusively hosts these heavily-skewed markets.

This creates a natural two-sided market:

  • 90% side: Stable carry (insurance-like yield)
  • 10% side: Explosive convexity (10x+ potential returns)

Market types

Crypto price markets

  • “Will BTC exceed $200K by Q1 2026?”
  • “Will ETH drop below $1,000 by March?”
  • Resolved automatically via Price Feed oracle

Macro / geopolitical events

  • “Will the Fed cut rates to 0% by 2026?”
  • Resolved via Optimistic Oracle (community-driven)

Custom events

  • Admin-created markets for early-stage testing
  • Resolved by Admin oracle

Market states

StateDescription
ActiveTrading is open
SettlingMarket closed, awaiting resolution
SettledResolution complete, payouts available